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Heh, I don’t know about that… AD is the way that it is because nobody has actually figured out what the operational requirements of any given organization are. Certainly not Microsoft, not even after 2.5 decades of trying.
Do you work in marketing? did you get that phrase out of a brochure?
There’s nothing seamless about anything cloud. Start taking apart any cloud platform and it will spill a bunch of ugly spaghetti and Swiss cheese.
There are no green fields, especially when you’re talking about replacing an existing, operationally critical piece of technology. This is what you get:
https://xkcd.com/927/
If the on-prem systems have a failure there won’t be any outbound network connectivity, there won’t be anything capable of connecting externally.
That “if” is load-bearing. The “potential savings” are imaginary, theoretical at best. It doesn’t really make sense to talk about “switching costs” when there’s nothing to switch to. It’s a big pile of “what-ifs” and “could-bes”.