After blinding Russian forces through a temporary window of drone dominance, Ukraine would then need to isolate the breakthrough area by disrupting communications, destroying command posts, and interdicting reserves. Ukraine should organize its drones and artillery within its corps and brigades so that it simultaneously neutralizes Russia in depth while providing responsive fires to its maneuver forces to continue their momentum.
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Additionally, once drone dominance is achieved, Ukraine should find penetrating Russian defenses relatively straightforward compared to its attempts during the failed spring 2023 counteroffensive. Russian forces are no longer ensconced behind the Surovikin Line with its dense minefields and multiple lines of fortifications. Rather, they are dispersed in the broad contested zone, both hiding from drones and relying on them for early warning. Without drone coverage, many of Russia’s thinly defended positions might be bypassed by infiltrating forces entirely.
Finally, to maintain momentum, Ukrainian forces will need the initiative to aggressively exploit Russian vulnerabilities. Promisingly, Syrskyi’s replacement, Mykhailo Draptyi, has stated that one of his objectives is to implement the principles of mission command into the armed forces to increase the speed and effectiveness of their operations. However, once unleashed beyond no man’s land, Ukrainian forces must be prepared to charge forward to exploit the breakthrough with the spirit they demonstrated during the Kharkiv counteroffensive.
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…Ukraine must provide a clear theory of victory to mobilize the support of its international partners. Ukraine needs a narrative that explains to foreign donors what support to prioritize and how their support will contribute to victory. If Ukraine can demonstrate that it has a way forward, that it not only has cards but can win the game, then external powers are more likely to bet on it. Operation Vivaldi has shown that victory is possible.
We may have just heard the prelude to that victory. In his announcement of Operation Vivaldi, the 3rd Corps commander, Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, declared that “Vivaldi, as we know, has four seasons. This is just the first of them.”
This is a great description of how we are witnessing russia lose the Ukraine War in realtime, what is now can be seen as an implementation of the basic idea put forward by this article from August which I think accurately captured where things were going into September and is interesting as hell to read in retrospect.