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Ai can crash before then, if people stop investing money or loaning money. It doesn’t mean OpenAI run out of money straight away, but it means the projects they are involved in don’t happen, so the mountain of debt piles up and the sources of revenue dry up. So, it all happens faster and the smaller neo-clouds go belly up first.
Already an Aussie one just pulled its launch IPO due to lack of interest and were considering dropping their price significantly.
If the IPO prices of other companies drop significantly, it means the early investors make very little profit, for a lot of risk, so they start to look elsewhere too.
AI companies need huge amounts of investment over extended periods, so either scenario is problematic for them.
Open AI is already backing out of their IPO too.
Most I’ve seen is because they don’t want to release their real financials. So it must be bad enough to spook investors even more than the delay.