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It’s almost always the latter. Nintendo especially likes to come up short for the first run, because it means they get free press with articles like this. I hadn’t even heard of this game until now.
And they’re not worried about missed sales, either, because anyone who really wants it will have already preordered, so they’ve already made the sale. Anyone who doesn’t care will go home and buy it online. Anyone on the fence will wait until it’s back in stock or give up and buy online. No one is going to give up and never buy it because of this.
I mean, I’d (almost) never buy a digital version of a game I want to play on console. Physical or it might as well not exist. It’s not no one, but it’s not enough people to matter either.
But aside from ‘no one’ being a slight overstatement, I think you’re dead on. It’s good if the physical copy does better than expected or whatever, but it was always going to be a drop in the bucket. Still, hopefully they keep printing them even if small quantities.